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COP21 RIPPLES Scenario Explorer now online

COP21 RIPPLES produced national and global transition pathways in order to support the assessment of major components of the global transformation to be consistent with the Paris Agreement long term goals (this includes physical transformations, socio-economic implications and required international cooperation). Those pathways are materialised in a comprehensive database of GHG and energy system scenarios produced by the project and contributed to the development of new scenarios: 18 national scenarios in eight countries (China, France, Germany, UK, Italy, Poland, South Africa, Brazil) and 14 global scenarios with different modelling frameworks.

                                               COP21 RIPPLES Scenario Explorer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After the end of the project, we have produced a scenario explorer that shows selected modelling results of the newly created scenarios to facilitate dissemination and reuse of the work in subsequent research projects.

Click here to access the Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA)

Scope and categories of scenarios

 

The focus of the COP21 RIPPLES analysis is on energy systems. Only CO2 energy-related emissions were reported or collected, excluding land use-related.

Global scenarios can be divided into three broad categories:

  1. “Current NDC”: Paris compatible scenarios with NDCs, where countries follow a pathway similar to a full implementation of the targets and strategies included in the current NDCs until 2030, while they accelerate action after 2030
  2. “Enhanced NDC”: Paris compatible scenarios with early action, where countries accelerate action from 2020 compared to the ambition level of the set of NDCs
  3. “1.5°C compatible scenarios”, where countries implement very deep decarbonisation strategies, that brings them on a pathway towards the 1.5°C-related benchmarks

Paris compatibility of the “Current NDC” and “Enhanced NDC” global scenarios was defined by meeting a carbon budget in the range of 1.000-1.100 GtCO2 for energy CO2 emissions (rounded to nearest 50) for the 2010-2050 period. In “Current-NDCs”, the global emissions level in 2030 (CO2-energy emissions only) is between 36 and 40 GtCO2, which represents the level of global ambition of the set of NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC. The global “Current NDC” scenarios do not represent individual NDCs, but the global emissions level estimated to be reached if all NDCs are met. According to IPCC SR15, such level of emissions in 2030 is out-of-the range for “no- and low-overshoot” 1.5°C scenarios.

The development of national scenarios and their integration into national policy discussions has been provided by local research institutions. Scenario characterisation has not been harmonised across the board. Instead each team has developed the set of scenarios that could best respond to the current domestic policy discussions. They all generally include an NDC scenario which represents a pathway where the country implements the targets and strategies included in its current NDC up to 2030.

The scenario data can also be downloaded from Zenodo

Country-level scenarios

 

Region

Model name

Scenario

Institution

Brazil

IMACLIM

New Brazil 1.5 C (IES Brasil 2050 Project)

CentroClima/ COPPE/UFRJ

China

SACC

Scenario Peak 2025

Tsinghua University, NCSC

China

SACC

Scenario Peak 2030

Tsinghua University, NCSC

France

POLES

Current NDC

CNRS

France

POLES

Enhanced NDC

CNRS

France

POLES

1.5C (P3-equivalent)

CNRS

France

POLES

High Decoupling 1.5C (P1-equivalent)

CNRS

Germany

External sources

Scenario RIPPLES, DEU below 2C

Wuppertal Institute

Germany

External sources

Scenario 1 RIPPLES, early decarbonisation

Wuppertal Institute

Italy

TIMES Italy

Scenario 1 RIPPLES, Early action 90

ENEA

Italy

TIMES Italy

Scenario 2, RIPPLES NDC 90%

ENEA

Poland

MEEP

Scenario 1 RIPPLES, no tech

WiseEuropa

Poland

MEEP

Scenario 2 RIPPLES, tech_post_2030

WiseEuropa

Poland

MEEP

Scenario RIPPLES, PL tech early action

WiseEuropa

South Africa

SATIM CGE e-SAGE

PAMS ALL RIPPLES 8

Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

South Africa

SATIM CGE e-SAGE

PAMS ALL RIPPLES 10

Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

UK

UK TIMES

Scenario 3 RIPPLES: 9Gt Low CCS & DR

UCL

UK

UK TIMES

Scenario 2 RIPPLES: 9Gt High All

UCL

UK

UK TIMES

Scenario 3 RIPPLES, UK 4GT High All

UCL

Global scenarios

 

Region

Model name

Scenario

Institution

World

ENGAGE

Current-NDC

UCL

World

ENGAGE

Enhanced-NDC

UCL

World

ENGAGE

P1-P2 1.5C

UCL

World

ICES

Current-NDC

CMCC

World

ICES

Enhanced-NDC

CMCC

World

ICES

P1-P2 1.5C

CMCC

World

POLES

Current-NDC (2C NDC)

CNRS

World

POLES

Enhanced-NDC (2C NDC+)

CNRS

World

POLES

1.5C (P3-equivalent)

CNRS

World

POLES

1.5C DA (P1-equivalent)

CNRS

World

TIAM-UCL

Current-NDC

UCL

World

TIAM-UCL

Enhanced-NDC

UCL

World

TIAM-UCL

P1-P2 1.5C

UCL

World

TIAM-UCL

P3-P4 1.5C

UCL

World

TIAM-UCL

1.7C

UCL

 

Posted 18th March 2020