Filed in Deliverables
Scenario Database of Existing or Updated National Decarbonisation Scenarios for
NDCs and 2°C / 1°5C
As a result of an extensive literature review of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathways, an excel-based database has compiled a total of 90 scenarios. 51 of these come from global teams and models, and the remaining 39 are sourced from in-country teams.15 national scenarios are new, developed in the context of COP21 RIPPLES by its consortium partners.
The review of the scenarios has supported the identification of key decarbonisation drivers in major emitting sectors to limit warming to well-below 2°C and 1.5°C. The analysis leads to the selection of indicators for the development of the COP21 RIPPLES narratives (under Task 2.2).
A main finding from the literature review is the lack of 1.5C-compatible scenarios that contain sufficient level of detail to support the assessment of socio-economic implications or the identification of enabling conditions. Activity-data is often lacking in the global scenarios. In-country national scenarios are harder to find, thus, the importance of the 15-newly generated scenarios under COP21 RIPPLES, even if it is not the objective of the project per se.