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Methodology

In order to address the scope of proposed work, the project brings together leading researchers in the fields of:

  • energy systems and greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario modelling and quantitative climate policy analysis;
  • leading macroeconomic modelling teams and research teams with experience in climate finance and quantitative micro-economic analysis (for example of industrial competitiveness and technology innovation); and
  • leading research teams in the area of transition research, international environmental law, international relations and political sciences.

The ambition of the project is to provide a truly integrated systemic analysis across the modelling and analysis of physical transition pathways (i.e. in energy systems, other emitting sectors, and of GHGs); the socioeconomic implications of these transition pathways; and the social science-based analysis of the enabling environment.

The project gathers together a geographically diverse consortium. It includes two representatives from a Southern European Member State (Italy); two representatives from Central and Eastern European Member States (Poland and Bulgaria), as well as representatives from France, UK and Germany. This will allow the project to fully take into account the diversity of circumstances, preferences and policy strategies in EU Member States, and in particular to tailor the analysis of the socioeconomic implications of EU and global decarbonisation efforts to these concerns. In addition, the project includes three representatives from leading global and regional economic powers: China, Brazil and South Africa. These countries are crucial players for international climate cooperation.

Different methodologies are split across the three research work packages (WPs).

WP2

This WP will compile a comprehensive database of GHG and energy system scenarios.The scenarios gathered in the database will be analysed using a proven methodology, already used in other projects and presented in the format of a harmonised template (i.e. a “dashboard”). This methodology allows for a detailed and harmonised presentation of scenario data, and enables a detailed analysis of the drivers of decarbonisation (across energy supply, transformation, energy service demand, in end-use sectors, and final energy efficiency and supply matrixes).

Part of the work will conduct analysis of global GHG pathways, using the SIAMESE model and database (which contain the most up-to-date integrated assessment model scenarios).

WP3

Here, the scenarios from WP2 will be ‘soft-linked’ with a suite of macroeconomic models and other quantitative assessment frameworks, in order to explore the socioeconomic consequences of transition pathways for the EU, its Member States and at the level of major emitters and globally. The pathways and scenarios explored in this work package will be co-designed and a key part of this work will be  the development of global and EU transition scenarios using the POLES model.

WP4

Understanding that meeting the Paris Agreement goals will require extensive international cooperation in order to overcome collective action challenges,his WP embraces primarily qualitative research at the intersection of political science/international relations, international law and policy analysis.

Analyses will especially be based on an in-depth review and integration of a number of relevant literatures at the interface of international relations and international law, which address international governance in general and international climate governance in particular.