1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019
In order to address the scope of proposed work, the project brings together leading researchers in the fields of:
- energy systems and greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario modelling and quantitative climate policy analysis;
- leading macroeconomic modelling teams and research teams with experience in climate finance and quantitative micro-economic analysis (for example of industrial competitiveness and technology innovation); and
- leading research teams in the area of transition research, international environmental law, international relations and political sciences.
The ambition of the project is to provide a truly integrated systemic analysis across the modelling and analysis of physical transition pathways (i.e. in energy systems, other emitting sectors, and of GHGs); the socioeconomic implications of these transition pathways; and the social science-based analysis of the enabling environment.
The project gathers together a geographically diverse consortium. It includes two representatives from a Southern European Member State (Italy); two representatives from Central and Eastern European Member States (Poland and Bulgaria), as well as representatives from France, UK and Germany. This will allow the project to fully take into account the diversity of circumstances, preferences and policy strategies in EU Member States, and in particular to tailor the analysis of the socioeconomic implications of EU and global decarbonisation efforts to these concerns. In addition, the project includes three representatives from leading global and regional economic powers: China, Brazil and South Africa. These countries are crucial players for international climate cooperation.
Different key research questions are addressed across the three research-based work packages (WPs):
- What concrete systemic changes will be induced in major emitting sectors, in particular the energy sector (across supply, transformation, and all end-use sectors) by NDCs and how do they compare with what is required to limit warming to 2°C/1.5°C? What are the implications of the 1.5°C trajectory?
- What is required in terms of further policy action and systemic transformation in order to ‘bridge’ from NDCs to 2°C/1.5°C compatible trajectories at the level of major emitters and globally? What sectors, technologies or policies should be the focus of future efforts to strengthen NDCs?
- What are the socio-economic consequences of NDC and deeper mitigation pathways for the EU and its Member States, key emerging economies and globally, in particular with regard to innovation and low-emissions technology deployment; energy security; trade, energy intensive industries, and competitiveness; investment, public and private financial flows; and economic growth (“green growth”), employment and distributional issues?
- What incentives and barriers do these socio-economic implications create for the implementation of NDCs and their strengthening towards 2°C/1.5°C compatible trajectories?
- Post-Paris, what are the core challenges and key governance functions for the international climate regime complex, in view of the transformation to low-emissions societies and economies necessary to achieve the long-term temperature goal established by the Paris Agreement?
- To what extent is the existing international climate regime complex adequate for addressing the core challenges and to fulfil the key governance functions identified? What gaps and room for improvement exist and how could this regime complex be further developed to enhance adequacy? What role could and should the UNFCCC/Paris Agreement play to this end?
- What could and should the EU and its Member States do to support the effectiveness of the international climate regime complex?Understanding that meeting the Paris Agreement goals will require extensive international cooperation in order to overcome collective action challenges,his WP embraces primarily qualitative research at the intersection of political science/international relations, international law and policy analysis.